I’ll be doing some additional digging later into the poll but chew on
this in the meantime:
Despite 52% of Minnesotans having a favorable impression of Senator Coleman only 45% approve of the job he’s doing.
I’ll explain the apparent contradiction after I whip some graphics up.
According to the new Survey USA poll (hat tip to MNCR).
Key points:
I’ll whip up some visual aids later. I’ve got to get downtown…more on this later.
The only thing that matters on Election Day are the people who actually make it to the polls. Pollsters use modifications to their selection methods to obtain a population that is likely to vote. In 2004, these methods were far from perfect.
It was my experience two years ago that gave me a permanent cynicism toward any prognostications based on polls, whether they be positive or negative. Simply put, Democrats were unable to close.
Here are quick closers to use:
Iraq has supplanted terrorism as the main issue driving the election. Believe it or not, but the most common reason given by moderates and independents for voting Republican was “we need to fight them over there so we don’t have to fight them at home.” That patently false propoganda has fallen apart.
In every competitive race, the Minnesotan Republican candidates have proven themselves unsuitable for public office due to their support for the administration’s Iraq policy. As you urge your family, friends or perfect strangers to vote tomorrow, remind them of these closers.
According to the poll, Klobuchar hold a 20-point lead over Kennedy. Hatch is only 5-points ahead of Pawlenty, within the margin of error.
Some interesting hits from the poll’s breakdown:
Senate
Governor
This tells us little about the “gaffe” effect in the Governor race, as the majority of respondents were interviewed beforehand.
I’ll link to MNCR’s trend lines as soon as he has them up.
Minvovled has just put out a new poll of the DFL Primary race in the 5th CD.
It came from three separate sources, so the poll itself is probably legitimate. The results make it clear the race is still in play, but not much else. This probably a good time to keep in mind that even the “likely voter” model has its failings.
If you missed Mark Blumenthal’s authoritative series on the likely voter model in 2004 you can find it here. Mark’s blog, Mystery Pollster, is a required read for anyone who wants to interpret poll results.
Minvovled, MN Publius and MN Campaign Report have been debating the effectiveness of Mike Hatch’s campaign for Governor in light of a new Strib article on the race. The thread, in chronological order is here: Minvovled, MN Publius, MNCR and Minvolved’s response to MN Publius.
Given the variances of psephology, the debate has been extremely well informed and civil.
However, the most important feature of this race has not yet been discussed openly since the original Strib article was released. Hatch has not yet sealed the deal with Democratic voters.
In the Rasmussen subtotals, Hatch is only polling at 68% of Democrats. 6% are going to Hutchinson, with 12% undecided. Contrast this with Pawlenty earning 85% of Republicans. Rasmussen argues that Democrat voters usually come around by election day. However, they do not put this into the context of Hatch’s favorability numbers trending downwards (-6%).
If Hatch was still polling high among Democrats, I would readily agree that Hatch has played his summer correctly and can begin his campaign in earnest after Labor Day.
Summer is more about developing your own grassroots base than it is about direct voter contact. Volunteers are busy people and they make their time commitments early in the season. If your volunteer recruitment is not high in the summer, you risk losing volunteers to other candidates or other causes. A handicapped volunteer operation in the fall could be fatal in a race that will be decided by the Democratic base.
It has been said that the blogs should stop complaining and start doing. Such an argument misses the point: Jeff from Minvovled, Matt from MN Publius, MNCR and I are all the type of people who will go to a candidate’s office without being asked and phone bank on our cell phones in a broom closet. If voters with our political profile are not being asked to volunteer every weekend, the question stands: who is being asked?
Throughout the month, I will be investigating the cause of Hatch’s Democratic deficit.
[UPDATED]
I have heard a rumor that new Rasmussen poll will show Klobuchar at 50 and Kennedy at 38
Kos verifies the poll data.
The same story also alleges that KvM heard the same rumor fact, posted on it, then deleted the post. I guess if you don’t have anything nice to say…
Flash verifies the KvM post removal.
In the biggest reversal of a “physical force” since the cosmological constant was proven false and then re-proven to be almost true, the latest Q-Poll shows Ned Lamont with a double-digit lead over Senator Joe Lieberman:
Lamont, a political novice, had support from 54 percent of likely Democratic voters in the Quinnipiac University poll, while Lieberman, now in his third term, had support from 41 percent of voters. The sampling error margin was plus or minus 3 percentage points.
Interesting, but off topic? Hardly. The Lamont-Lieberman race is a clear contrast between two radically different methods of communication. Expect an update discussing the difference later today.