Blanked Out

According to the poll, Klobuchar hold a 20-point lead over Kennedy. Hatch is only 5-points ahead of Pawlenty, within the margin of error.

Some interesting hits from the poll’s breakdown:

Senate 

• By a 2-1 ratio, ads have made voters support Klobuchar over Kennedy. Kennedy’s ad-man Scott Howell has lost his touch.
• Klobuchar wins most age demographics, especially 65 and over, where she leads Kennedy by 38-points. The exception is 35-44 year olds which Kennedy takes by six.
• Kennedy has more support among individuals with an income between $75k - $90k, but Klobuchar has more support among the $100k+ crowd.  Who says the rich are anti-Democrat?

Governor

• Pawlenty keeps close to Hatch in the first two education demographics, but college graduates pull more from Pawlenty by a margin of 9-points.
• Economic breakdown is clear in this race.  Hatch takes those making under $75k, Pawlenty takes those who make more.
• Hatch wins the health care vote, Pawlenty the tax vote.  No surprise.
• Ads have been a bit of a wash in this race.  Interesting, all I feel is dirty after watching the negative ads in this race.

This tells us little about the “gaffe” effect in the Governor race, as the majority of respondents were interviewed beforehand.

I’ll link to MNCR’s trend lines as soon as he has them up.

Minvovled, MN Publius and MN Campaign Report have been debating the effectiveness of Mike Hatch’s campaign for Governor in light of a new Strib article on the race. The thread, in chronological order is here: Minvovled, MN Publius, MNCR and Minvolved’s response to MN Publius.

Given the variances of psephology, the debate has been extremely well informed and civil.

However, the most important feature of this race has not yet been discussed openly since the original Strib article was released. Hatch has not yet sealed the deal with Democratic voters.

In the Rasmussen subtotals, Hatch is only polling at 68% of Democrats. 6% are going to Hutchinson, with 12% undecided. Contrast this with Pawlenty earning 85% of Republicans. Rasmussen argues that Democrat voters usually come around by election day. However, they do not put this into the context of Hatch’s favorability numbers trending downwards (-6%).

If Hatch was still polling high among Democrats, I would readily agree that Hatch has played his summer correctly and can begin his campaign in earnest after Labor Day.

Summer is more about developing your own grassroots base than it is about direct voter contact. Volunteers are busy people and they make their time commitments early in the season. If your volunteer recruitment is not high in the summer, you risk losing volunteers to other candidates or other causes. A handicapped volunteer operation in the fall could be fatal in a race that will be decided by the Democratic base.

It has been said that the blogs should stop complaining and start doing. Such an argument misses the point: Jeff from Minvovled, Matt from MN Publius, MNCR and I are all the type of people who will go to a candidate’s office without being asked and phone bank on our cell phones in a broom closet. If voters with our political profile are not being asked to volunteer every weekend, the question stands: who is being asked?

Throughout the month, I will be investigating the cause of Hatch’s Democratic deficit.

• Is it messaging?
• The media? Their refusal to pick up on Hatch’s avuncular side?
• Field operations?