Blanked Out

Many bloggers were speculating this morning that Rumsfeld would be forced to resign in light of the returns.

They were right.

How much goodwill will this earn among the new Democratic leadership? Depends on what they think of Bush’s nominee, former CIA Director Robert Gates. Here’s his Wiki bio - Gates was in the chute for Director of National Intelligence before Negroponte. Gates decided to stay at Texas A&M, hence Negroponte took the spot.

Gates is also a member of the Iraq Study Group, the much lauded group headed by James Baker and Lee Hamilton tasked to an independent assessment on the war in Iraq. Their results were planned to be released after the election. ABC just called Gates the “anti-Rumsfeld” and a disciple of Scrowcroft, who has been a vocal critic of the administration’s Iraq War policy.

I’m watching the remainder of the Bush press conference right now - he’s falling apart. I don’t think he understands that the press corp is laughing at him, not with him.

While the top headline on CNN.com is the Rumsfeld resignation, Ellison’s victory is also front page news.

CNN just called it for Tester with 49%. VA is a foregone conclusion.  It’s over - clean sweep.
Just got a report that the MSM is either already or about to call MT for Tester. Trying to track it down.
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Tester now leads Burns by 3,128 votes according to CNN. Meagher has still not reported - is Tester winning the Yellowstone recount?

Tester currently leads Burns by 1,729 votes.

There won’t be enough votes for Burns to win or to trigger an automatic recount. Meagher County is the only county left to report in Montana. The 2004 results for Meagher:

Bush: 698
Kerry: 247
Total Cast: 977

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(I’m 99.9% sure CNN reported that the margin had to be 1,000 votes or under for a recount. Still trying to track that down online.)

CNN did say 1,000 was the magic number, because it was at the time. Here’s the current skinny on a possible Montana recount:

A losing candidate can request a recount at his own expense if the margin is within 1/2 of a percent, which would be a margin off roughly 2,000 votes in the Montana U.S. Senate race. If the margin is less than 1/4 of a percent, the state and the counties will pick up the tab.

UPDATE: Looks like all the absentee ballots may not be incorporated into the vote totals, due to some tricky button pushing. I think my analysis will stand. For the sake of the Senate, let’s hope so.

Developments you might have missed:

• Walz is beating Gutknecht by almost 6 points. He was asked on MPR if he would run for Senate in two years. Characteristically, Walz politely declined…
• US Senate still up in the air, but Democratic control likely. MT and VA still close with Dem leads. Possible recount in VA.
• McNerney (D) makes a late night comeback against virulent anti-environmentalist Pombo (R) in CA-11!
• Nancy Pelosi is a member of the Progressive Caucus and is now Speaker of the House. But did you know that the “Progressive Caucus will control half of all House committees”? (h/t MyDD). I think Limbaugh’s head is exploding right about now.
• SD sent the abortion ban down in flames, AZ defeated their anti-gay marriage amendment (becoming the 1st state to do so at the ballot level) and MO passed their stem-cell measure. (h/t Andrew Sullivan)

I’ll look at turnout when my brain starts working again.

Oh, there’s also this from the Powerline:

Yesterday’s biggest winners:

illegal immigrants.

Posted by Paul at 09:06 AM | Permalink  |    |  

Good to know they’re taking the results in stride over there.  Stay classy, fellas.

Looks like the Democrats are going to take both the House and Senate, at both the federal and state levels.  Waiting on MT and VA for the US Senate - Tester leading by 2%, Webb lead at .3%.

I’ll have an election round-up but as it stand with the internet connection, blogging is pretty much impossible. The only blogs with a decent internet connection here are:

MN Publius
Minnesota Monitor
Centristy

Good news: Dems win the House and Phil Krinkie is losing his seat in the MN Legislature!

Good night and good luck…

Wireless connection is wonking out as of 10:00 pm.  Posts will be few and far between.  Though I’m sitting next to Al Franken, so that’s good news.

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Early County Result Round-Up NOT FINAL TOTALS:

• Wetterling and Rowley’s numbers don’t look good at the moment, but there’s a long night ahead.
• Luger loses to Freeman.
• IRV?

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Just got set up - Klobuchar giving victory speech to a full crowd. Got word on the way over that the GOP HQ is only 2/3 full and the tone is “somber”.

Unfortunately, it looks like Webb in VA is going to lose by .5%. Damn.

Fortunately, I’m sitting in between the MN Publius guys and RT Rybak. Good election night company.

Keith Ellison has entered the hall - I’m sure he will claim victory soon. I’ll be heading to DFL HQ: I’ll leave it to the mainstream media to report his victory speech.

Early results are now frozen while I drive (8:53pm).

Early Results from Counties - NOT FINAL COUNTS:

• CD5: Ellison 57% (46% of Hennepin County reporting)
• CD6: Anoka County is reporting a small Bachmann lead, with 29/77 precincts. Still waiting for other counties.
• CD1: Kline by 58% in Dakota with 12% reporting.
• Minneapolis DFL School board candidates are all winning.
• VA-SEN: Tied, .4% Allen lead

Other Info:

• The rumor earlier is true: CBS has called the election for Keith. CNN called it for Klobuchar. Woot!
• CNN just called Whitehouse in RI. We need 3 more.
• Ford Bell just arrived.

Amanda Stewart, Assistant to the Communications Director relates her personal higlight of the campaign:

When Jesse Jackson was in our office yesterday he told us that this campaign was living out Rev. King’s dream of a multi-ethnic, multi-religious, multi-class political movement. And it’s true: our campaign office was constantly filled with people from all walks of life.

Note: This party has the best music I’ve ever heard at a political event. Kudos to whoever is running the track list.

Numbers are coming in very fast - I’ll update every couple of minutes. Word is CBS may be already calling this race soon.

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No news yet. I’m seated next to Murtzq Solangi reporting for the VOA - Urdu Service. Keith’s campaign has no numbers yet.

Brown, Menendez and Nelson are all pretty much sown up.

CNN is predicting a Casey win in PA.

Webb 48%

Allen 50%

43% of precincts reporting.  Heading to Keith Ellison’s party.
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Webb 49%

Allen 49%

Race still tied, but the margin is even smaller: Webb is in the lead by 40 votes.
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Webb 52%

Allen 47%.

Hope that it holds.

(hat tip to Raising Kaine)

FYI: If you’re tracking the race on TV, the numbers lag behind the actual Virginia website producing the results.

MyDD has unconfirmed exit polls:

Democrats leading in:

• VA: 53-46
• RI: 53-46
• PA: 57-42
• OH: 57-43
• NJ: 53-45
• MT: 53-46
• MO: 50-48

Republicans leading:

• TN: 51-48
• AZ: 50-46

MN Publius has the breakdown of local exit polls.  I’ll be heading to Keith Ellison’s victory party later.

Turnout at the UMN is a bit above average, but no records have been broken. Yet.

Minneapolis as a whole might break a midterm record: For example precinct 7-8 is at 1211 which is already more than half of the 2002 result. We’ll see how things pan out after the evening rush.

Minnesota Monitor have most of their liveblogs going strong, MNCR is reporting from the West Metro, MN Publius is covering several election irregularities and will probably be the first to get any leaked exit polls.  Be careful - don’t believe the hype.