Leaked Poll in the 5th CD
Minvovled has just put out a new poll of the DFL Primary race in the 5th CD.
It came from three separate sources, so the poll itself is probably legitimate. The results make it clear the race is still in play, but not much else. This probably a good time to keep in mind that even the “likely voter” model has its failings.
If you missed Mark Blumenthal’s authoritative series on the likely voter model in 2004 you can find it here. Mark’s blog, Mystery Pollster, is a required read for anyone who wants to interpret poll results.
August 22nd, 2006 at 12:25 pm
My only comment is that “push-polling” among likely voters doesn’t always have to be negative.
Unlike random calling, door-knock polls of likely voters can identify, and influence, undecided voters without going negative.
If a school-age child answers the door talk about education with his/her parent. If a sweaty commuter - still in business attire - answers the door start talking about transportation. If a retiree, using a walker, answers the door start off with health care.
Pick the right issues and you can essentially influence undecides without having to go negative.
August 22nd, 2006 at 3:44 pm
Great point - campaigns are very sensitive to the fact that the “messenger” often has more of an impact than the message itself.